THE SHORT READ
A slower market. Room for a clearer plan.
When you are considering a purchase, a sale or a move, another market headline does not always make the decision easier. This report puts the September numbers into context, then brings the conversation back to your home and your plans.
Sales momentum softened and price measures remained under pressure. National conditions, the GTA and a particular neighbourhood are different layers of the market. A useful decision still begins with the right local comparisons.
Data covers September 2026, using releases available on October 28. Interpretation and planning suggestions are analysis, not a forecast of future prices.
01 / CANADA
Read sales and prices together.
CREA reported a 2.3% month-over-month sales decline. Unadjusted activity fell 7.7% year over year. The national average sale price was CAD 666,538, down 1.6% annually; the composite MLS® HPI fell 3.4% annually. [1]
The national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 48.8%, with 4.9 months of inventory. CREA describes roughly 45%–65% as a ratio generally consistent with balanced conditions. These national measures do not classify every neighbourhood. [1]
An average is not an appraisal.
The average price changes with the mix of homes sold. HPI helps track a typical home. Neither measure should simply be applied to last year’s estimate of your property. Compare recent sales with similar location, type, size and condition.
02 / GREATER TORONTO
Bring the picture closer to home.
TRREB recorded 5,040 September sales, down 9.0% annually. The average price was CAD 1,006,409, down 5.1%; the composite HPI benchmark fell 4.7%. [2]
| Measure | September | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,040 | −9.0% |
| New listings | 16,500 | −14.4% |
| Active listings | 26,131 | −9.3% |
| Average price | $1,006,409 | −5.1% |
| Average LDOM | 34 days | +3.0% |
| Average PDOM | 51 days | 0.0% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, page 1. Prices in CAD. Listing days and property days on market are different measures. [2]
Supply and activity both fell from a year earlier. A slower market does not mean every property is easier to buy. Presentation, price, condition and competing listings still matter.
For buyers: make your comparisons useful.
Use the same checklist for each home. Look beyond the asking price to condition, upkeep, commute and closing dates. Separate your essential needs from preferences, so a good photograph does not outweigh how the home will work for you.
For sellers: make the value easy to understand.
Preparation, photography, information and pricing should tell one coherent story. After launch, review showing feedback alongside relevant new sales. A national percentage cannot replace that local process.
03 / NEW-HOME SUPPLY
A construction start is not a completed home.
CMHC counted 19,984 actual starts in centres with at least 10,000 people, down 11% annually. The all-Canada seasonally adjusted annual rate was 248,896, and the six-month trend was 250,411. These are different measures and coverage areas. [3]
An annualized rate expresses pace, while a moving average softens monthly fluctuations. Neither says those homes were completed in September. For a pre-construction purchase, focus on the particular development’s status, layout, costs and delivery arrangements.
Statistics Canada’s New Housing Price Index fell 0.2% nationally and 0.5% in Ontario from August. It covers new single, semi-detached and row homes; it is not a resale average or a measure of every condominium project. [4]
Explore new-home projects ↗04 / YOUR NEXT MOVE
Start with three personal questions.
What needs to change?
Space, commuting, family needs or maintenance? Make the reason for moving clear before reacting to another headline.
Where can you be flexible?
Rank location, layout, condition and timing. A shared set of priorities makes the search or preparation more focused.
How will both sides fit?
If you are buying and selling, plan both transactions together. Consider timing and funding scenarios alongside each property’s price.
ROBERT LU · 吕行
The numbers are a starting point. Your plans give them meaning.
We can begin with your neighbourhood, your current home and what you want the next chapter to look like.
Talk through my next move ↗A note on the numbers.
- Reference month: September 2026. Published October 28, 2026. Later source revisions may change historical figures.
- Year-over-year compares the same month a year earlier; month-over-month compares adjacent months. National monthly sales use CREA’s adjusted series.
- Average price, HPI and NHPI measure different things. National, regional and neighbourhood results are not interchangeable.
- This report is market context, not a property valuation, a return guarantee or individual financing advice.
Sources & publication dates
- CREA · September 2026 national statistics ↗2026-10-16
- TRREB · Market Watch, September 2026 · p.1 ↗2026-10-06
- CMHC · September 2026 housing starts ↗2026-10-16
- Statistics Canada · New Housing Price Index, September 2026 ↗2026-10-22
Sources checked October 28, 2026. Charts are original visualizations of the cited figures.